Public Insight #12: The fall semester is about to start!

It has been (quite) a year. Public Insight, New America's higher education public opinion newsletter, was first released last September. Since then, it has provided readers with commentary about the public perception of higher education, discussing challenges facing students during the pandemic, and reviewing college leaders’ and faculty concerns over the course of such a challenging year. Even though the rollout of vaccines has given us hope about the end of the pandemic, the problems faced by campuses almost a year ago are still pretty much with us as colleges are preparing to welcome students back to campus.

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Buckle up for a rocky start to the semester, but vaccines can help

Just when it felt like the country was turning over a new leaf when it came to the COVID-19 pandemic, the hyper contagious Delta variant has taken hold of the nation. Delta is the root to our current soaring case rates and increases in hospitalizations, particularly in less vaccinated areas of the country. In many ways, it feels like we’ve taken a huge step backwards when it comes to the pandemic. Many colleges and universities are starting the fall semester during a surge, and it’s nerve wracking and brings up similar worrisome feelings to how we began the last academic year. But now that we are a year into learning more about COVID-19, the path ahead is more known than unknown, although it will be more plodding than was originally hoped. Buckle up, it’s going to be a rocky fall semester.

Importantly, the news on vaccines remains positive despite Delta—vaccines help protect people from symptomatic infections, and they are very effective at preventing hospitalization and death. Both masking and vaccination along with other strategies such as testing and isolation of positive cases will be important for weathering the next academic year as we enter a new phase to the pandemic. Americans believe that colleges and universities have an important role to play in making communities safe and getting students vaccinated. A majority—61 percent—said in May that college students should be required to get vaccinated.

Students and parents of students are also open to vaccine mandates from colleges and universities. In the Civis tracker from July 2020, nearly 50 percent of current college students and parents of current college students say their college will require vaccination. In that same survey, nearly 3 in 4 (72 percent) of current students and parents of current students say that colleges should mandate vaccination before students enroll in classes. In New America and Third Way’s most recent undergraduate tracker from May, 77 percent of students say they will take the vaccine if required to attend school in the fall, which was up 9 percentage points from when we asked in December.

So far, the Chronicle of Higher Education has identified 686 campuses that are requiring vaccination for at least some students and staff either under Emergency Use Authorization from the FDA or when full approval comes later this month or early next. Other campuses considering mandates, but are hesitant because of worries about their students’ reactions, should be reassured by available public opinion data that most students are open to mandates.

Online learning is here to stay

While colleges and universities are pushing ahead with their return to an in-person semester, there have been indications that they will not do away with online learning anytime soon. A survey conducted by Quality Matters in February 2021 of 400 chief online officers (COOs) at two- and four-year colleges and universities provides us with some across-the-board numbers on the future adoption of online learning.

The survey found that while the unexpected pivot online in the spring left some unsatisfactory questions about the quality of online learning, 86 percent of COOs believe that there will be more priority given to online learning as a result of the emergency pivot to online last fall. This number is quite consistent across all sectors: more than 80 percent of COOs at public two-year, public four-year, and private four-year institutions believe they will increase priority for online learning. Even at colleges where online enrollment was less than 1,000 students before the pandemic, 79 percent will put more focus on online learning in the future.

Nearly 70 percent of COOs believe that at least some courses that moved online because of the pandemic will evolve into new permanent online programs at their institutions. The number is much higher at public two-year colleges (82 percent) compared to 72 percent at public four-year and 54 percent at private four-year institutions.

When asked to comment on the strategic changes that are being implemented or considered at their institutions, most COOs mention changes related to online learning. The three most common responses from COOs are expanding online course and program choices, recognizing and supporting online learning priorities and needs, and increasing flexibility to meet student needs with multiple teaching modes.

This last point about multiple teaching modes also reflects what many students want. According to our student survey conducted in partnership with Third Way, while a majority of students still doubt the quality of online education, a third would like to take both online and in-person classes in fall 2021.

Non-degree credentials lead to unsatisfactory earnings

Strada-Gallup Education’s most recent survey in its Public Viewpoint series found that forty percent of adults have completed a non-degree credential, and 20 percent of adults said it was their highest level of education. Adults who paired a non-degree credential with a traditional degree report higher rates of success post graduation, while adults who completed very short programs have the lowest earning levels of certificate holders.

Exploring the perception of more than 10,000 adults with non-degree credentials, the survey found that adults who completed non-degree programs but not associate or bachelor’s degree programs report slightly higher satisfaction, such that the programs are worth the cost, help achieve their goals, and makes them attractive job candidates, than adults with associate degrees, but less satisfaction than adults with bachelor’s degrees and higher. Adults with bachelor’s degrees report higher median earnings ($75,000) than those with associate degrees and those who completed non degree programs (both around $50,000). However, non-degree alumni report the same level of job satisfaction as bachelor’s degree holders (69 percent), which is higher than that of associate degree holders (59 percent). Importantly, it’s worth noting that a greater percentage of adult workers with only non-degree credentials earn less than $30,000 median salary annually compared to those with associate and bachelor’s degrees.

The unsatisfactory financial outcome of non-degree graduates was also found in a report from New America’s Monique Ositelu on short-term programs. The report shows that these credentials can leave graduates underemployed or even unemployed, and with low wages. Dr. Ositelu’s analysis also showed that female graduates and graduates of color are especially vulnerable to low earnings post-completion. Half of adults who hold a short-term credential $30,000 a year or less, and Black and Latinx credential holders earn $10,000-$20,000 less than white credential holders. Forty percent of adults with short-term credentials are unemployed.

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