Feb. 19, 2016
Ioannis Koskinas wrote for Foreign Policy about the the risks to Afghanistan in this new era:
While attention focuses on renewed military threats to Afghanistan, the National Unity Government’s (NUG) political failures, often complicated by failing U.S. foreign-policy initiatives, pose a far greater threat to the country’s stability than the worsening security conditions. In the 18 months since the U.S.-brokered power sharing agreement that created the NUG came into effect, neither the Taliban nor the Islamic State (IS) have transformed into an existential threat to the Afghan central government. But, the NUG’s inability to deliver on its reform promises, waning political support for its national agenda, and an increasingly naïve American approach to Kabul have placed Afghanistan on a path towards political meltdown.
President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah inherited a government already in trouble. Afghanistan’s economic growth rate fell from a record-high 14.4 percent in 2012 to 1.3 percent in 2014. Although it is still too early to assess the extent of the damage from this precipitous drop off, the CIA World Factbook notes that the withdrawal of NATO coalition forces “negatively affected economic growth.” More specifically, the services sector, fueled largely by the massive international presence, accounted for over half of Afghanistan’s GDP in 2012.
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