The Information War in Ukraine: New America Experts Respond

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be fought online as well as on the battlefield. New America’s experts are closely tracking the information war in Russia, Ukraine, and here at home.

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Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO, New America @SlaughterAM:

"Even the most hard-boiled geopolitical analyses of Russia's invasion of Ukraine recognize the critical impact of global players such as businesses, diaspora groups, and civic organizations. Any assessment of the forces arrayed on both sides must take account of groups like Anonymous and companies like Microsoft as well as looking at Russian-backed hackers and troll farms."

Candace Rondeaux, Director, Future Frontlines, New America @CandaceRondeaux:

"From Telegram to Twitter, champions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have expressly named information as the war’s second front. The assault on truth and disinformation has already had tangible effects inside and outside Russia. The Kremlin has shown that it intends to raze Ukraine’s communications infrastructure. Wagner Group contingents have been abuzz for months about their intent to press into the psychological warfare space. But no one should make the mistake of thinking Russia’s aggression will stop at Ukraine’s border. Russia’s invasion will haunt U.S. politics for years to come. The question tech leaders around the world now need to ask themselves is which side they want to be on and how they will ensure that not only their businesses but their countries continue to survive and thrive.”

Peter W. Singer, Strategist and Senior Fellow, New America @peterwsinger:

Why has Ukraine been so successful at information warfare/propaganda vs. the supposed Russian masters of it? Peter Singer provided a multi-part tweet thread, explaining why Ukraine has been so successful against the supposed Russian masters of information warfare and its 10 key messaging themes.

This Twitter thread from Peter Singer explains three reasons why Russia's info ops aren’t resonating.

Ben Dalton, Fellow, Future Frontlines, New America @wbend:

"Russian mercenary groups, including the infamous Wagner Group, are on the move, reportedly hunting President Zelenskyy in Kyiv, fighting on the battlefield, and recruiting on their own widely read social media channels. While attention has understandably shifted to Russia's formal military operations, we can expect that these groups will continue to form an integral part of Putin's wartime strategy."

This Twitter thread from Future Frontlines highlights the moves of the Wagner Group.

ICYMI: Watch New America’s event “Russia Invades Ukraine” with Ben Dalton, Beatrice Godefroy, and Aric Toler in conversation with Candace Rondeaux with additional comments from the ground by Liza Baran.

New America Experts in the News

• What’s next? Anne-Marie Slaughter joined FP Live to talk about what’s next for Ukraine.
• The information battlespace: Peter Singer explained the importance of this space to the Washington Post: “You can’t disentangle the information side of the war from the physical battlefield side or from the geopolitical diplomacy side. They all matter.”
• Ukraine’s information strategy: Ukraine's approach “makes real in an intimate manner both the cost of Russia’s invasion, the narrative that Ukraine is pushing on an unjust invasion, the narrative that they’re trying to push within Russia of the illegitimacy of what Putin is doing, the narrative they’re trying to push within Russia of trying to create public pressure in particular among parents of soldiers to end the war….You’ve got counter messaging of not only are we capturing POWs but we’re letting your poor, scared POWs call their parents,” Peter Singer told Task and Purpose.
• Evolving U.S.-Europe relationship: Heather Hurlburt, Director of the New Models of Policy Change Initiative at New America, joined Alicia Menendez on MSNBC to discuss the geopolitical implications of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
• Refugee crisis: “Putin saw in 2015 how destabilizing the refugee debate was to Western Europe. Showing now that the West is ready to deal with this in a non-alarmist, non-hostile way takes away a tool Putin has to destabilize Western society,” Heather Hurlburt told the Washington Post.
• Changing U.S.-Russia relations: “With Russian troops now deep inside Ukraine, and with NATO and the United Nations Security Council caught up in a series of emergency sessions in order to respond to the conflict, it may seem a bit glib to fixate on the question of how the Russian invasion will shape domestic politics in the United States. Still, it is important to also acknowledge what this moment in history means for the future trajectory of the U.S., and, in turn, what shifting attitudes in Washington might mean for U.S.-Russia relations,” Candace Rondeaux writes in World Politics Review.
• U.S.-Russia Competition: “Slowly, the structures that kept US-Russian military competition visible and predictable fell away. At the same time, Beijing is building up its arsenal and making it very clear that it’s not interested in the US-Soviet arms control model,” Heather Hurlburt told Vox.