A Future Strategy: Amy J Nelson Contends that Forward-Looking Negotiations Can Prevent Escalation

As Iran edges closer to nuclear breakout capability, Amy J. Nelson argues that the traditional tools of coercion and pressure are not only outdated—they are dangerously counterproductive. In a rapidly shifting geopolitical and technological landscape, legacy approaches grounded in maximum pressure and zero-sum thinking fail to account for the complexity of 21st-century deterrence and diplomacy. Nelson calls for a futures-oriented strategy that recognizes messy realities and leverages nuanced, multilateral diplomacy. Citing the relative success of the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA), she contends that only flexible, forward-looking negotiations—not rigid posturing—can prevent escalation and foster durable security in an era of proliferating risks.