The Pain in Spain

The eurozone crisis has re-emerged with rising borrowing costs in Italy and Spain and increasing concerns about the prospects for growth. World Economic Roundtable participants from Carmel Asset Management have prepared this research report diagnosing the problems in the Spanish economy and explaining why Spain will continue to be a focal point of the eurozone crisis:

1. Spain’s national debt is 50% greater than the headline numbers
Spain’s debt-to-GDP balloons from 60% to 90% of GDP with regional and other debts

2. Spain’s housing prices will fall by an additional 35%
Spain built one house for every additional person added to the population during the
past two decades; the fall will decrease GDP by ~2% each of the next two years

3.  Spain has “zombie” banks with massive loans to developers and to
homeowners
Banks have not begun to realize losses and are vastly undercapitalized

4. Spain’s economy has not stabilized and will continue to deteriorate
Spain has the highest unemployment in the developed world, one of the highest overall
debt loads, and the most uncompetitive labor market in Europe

5. The EU will not have the firepower or political will to bail out Spain
Rescue fund headline numbers are misleading and count capital that is not yet
committed

Click here to read the full report.