Higher Education in the Election

Americans believe that education beyond high school is necessary
for securing economic success but is an increasingly expensive proposition,
according to a recent survey of 800 likely voters commissioned by New America
about higher education in the presidential election.

A strong 82 percent majority of likely voters agree that
education beyond high school is a necessity, but 85 percent think it is getting
much harder to afford. This sentiment was felt strongly regardless of political
affiliation.

In terms of the presidential election, likely voters are
aware of the presidential candidates’ policies and plans for higher
education–68 percent indicated they knew either a great deal or some about the
plans. Democrats are slightly more likely to have heard a great deal compared
to Republicans (30 percent a great deal among Democrats, 25 percent a great
deal among Republicans).

Without Debt? Yes.
Tuition-Free? Mixed. And “free” is the great political divide.

Overall, 70 percent of likely voters favor a plan that
guarantees students the opportunity to pursue a public four-year degree without
going into debt for tuition. Majorities across party lines favor this, but by
large differences of intensity (68 percent of Democrats strongly favor compared to 33 percent of Republicans).

Personal responsibility–or a “skin in the game”
requirement–seems to be an important concept for debt-free college proposals
compared to targeting a debt-free tuition program based on income. More voters
favor providing a debt-free plan for students attending a four-year public
college or university who maintain a GPA of 2.5 and participate in a volunteer
or work-study program (74 percent) compared to limiting the plan to those with
household incomes less than $125,000 a year (64 percent). For Republicans,
favorability drops considerably with a set income threshold.

From the Tennessee Promise program of free community
college, to Bernie Sanders’s plan for free public college, to Hillary Clinton’s
plan for debt-free college for those making under $125,000, the concept of
“free” tuition at public colleges and universities has gained widespread media
coverage over the past two years. Likely voters, however, are split on whether
college should be “tuition-free” or “debt-free” and there is a clear divide
along party lines.

A slim majority (52 percent) believe that students and
families should not have to borrow loans to attend a public college or
university. However, less than half (42 percent) of voters agree with the idea
that public colleges and universities should be tuition-free.

The concept of graduating without debt, where some students
and families are on the hook to pay or contribute something for their
education, is more favorable to likely voters than free tuition.

Regardless, neither free tuition nor not having to borrow are
popular concepts with Republicans. A strong majority of Republicans (75
percent) oppose free tuition compared to 38 percent of Democrats, and 74
percent of Democrats agree with not having to take out loans to attend college
compared with 31 percent of Republicans.

Although targeting based on income is less popular for
debt-free college, 48 percent of likely voters believe free tuition at public
colleges and universities should be targeted to those making less than
$125,000, with 29 percent believing it should be available regardless of income
and 19 percent saying the benefit should not exist at all.

Free college is too
expensive.

Both Democrats and Republicans believe that the government
can’t afford to pay for free tuition at public colleges for everyone right now.
Overall, 68 percent believe that it is not affordable including a majority of
Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

Fixing existing federal
programs–especially student loan programs–received the most support.

When presented with both current and new ideas to make
college more affordable, likely voters strongly supported existing policies or
reforming the current system, especially policies having to do with federal
student loans. Loan refinancing, for example, has strong support regardless of
political affiliation–overall 90 percent of voters favor a plan that allows
borrowers to refinance loans at lower rates, including 78 percent who strongly favor. Strong support extends
across party lines.

Likely voters also favor income-driven repayment plans that
have become popular and have been expanded in the past few years, such as Pay
As You Earn. An overwhelming 87 percent favor allowing borrowers of federal
student loans to make monthly payments based on an affordable percentage of
their income, including 70 percent who strongly
favor, and support remains strong across party lines.

Methodology

Lake Research Partners and Chesapeake Beach Consulting
designed and administered this survey that was conducted by professional
interviewers from September 30 – October 3, 2016. The survey reached a total of
800 likely 2016 voters nationwide.         

Telephone numbers for the likely voter sample were drawn
from Catalist sample. The data for likely voters were weighed slightly by
gender, region, age, race, and party ID to reflect attributes of the actual
population. Respondents were reached by both landlines and cell phones.

The margin of error for the total sample is +/-3.5%. In
interpreting survey results, all sample surveys are subject to possible
sampling error; that is, the results of a survey may differ from those which
would be obtained if the entire population were interviewed. The size of the
sampling error depends upon both the total number of respondents in the survey
and the percentage distribution of responses to a particular question. For
example, if 50% of respondents in a sample of 800 respondents answered “Yes” to
a particular question, we can be 95% confident that the true percentage will
fall within 3.5 points, or from 44.5% to 55.5%. 

About New
America’s Education Policy Program

New America’s Education Policy Program uses original
research and policy analysis to solve the nation’s critical education problems,
serving as a trusted source of objective analysis and innovative ideas for
policymakers, educators, and the public at large. We combine a steadfast
concern for low-income and historically disadvantaged people with a belief that
better information about education can vastly improve both the policies that
govern educational institutions and the quality of learning itself.

This survey was made possible through a generous grant from
the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

About Lake
Research Partners

Lake Research Partners is a leading public opinion and
political strategy research firm providing expert research-based strategy for
campaigns, issue advocacy groups, foundations, unions, and non-profit
organizations. 

About Chesapeake
Beach Consulting

Bob Carpenter, President and Founder of Chesapeake Beach
Consulting has over 25 years of research experience and over 40 years of
political experience.  He has worked in
many policy areas including the education arena.  Prior to founding Chesapeake Beach
Consulting, Bob worked for American Viewpoint, a Republican research company.