Enrollment Declines and Budget Shortfalls Threaten Dual Language Immersion Programs

Public school enrollment in the United States is in decline. Over the last five years, the K–12 public school population has shrunk by 2.3 percent, or approximately 1.18 million students. And by 2031, it is projected that public school enrollment will continue to decline by an additional 5.5 percent. Falling birth rates, changing interstate and international migration patterns, increased competition from non-public school options, and fear inflicted by increased immigration enforcement by the second Trump administration have all been linked to fewer students enrolling in public schools. 

Enrollment declines have not been felt evenly across the country. “Fringe” districts just outside urban areas, for example, have actually experienced enrollment increases. Certain student groups, such as English learners and immigrant-origin students, have also experienced starker declines in certain states, including California and Massachusetts. But when enrollment does decline, school districts receive less money to operate and meet their programmatic and fiscal responsibilities. Districts across the country are responding to these trends by closing and merging schools, often citing decreased enrollment, fiscal pressures, and changing priorities. In line with enrollment trends, urban districts and rural areas are being disproportionately affected by these intersecting pressures. 

Of particular concern for the nation’s English learners, shifting enrollment patterns and constricting district budgets also threaten the viability and stability of dual language education, particularly two-way language immersion programs.

Dual language education offers both academic (such as math and science) and language development instruction in English and a partner language. The long-term aim of two-way dual language immersion (TWI) programs is to help students become bilingual and biliterate in both languages. TWI programs have expanded in recent years, in part due to increased demand for dual language programs by native English-speaking families who have come to understand that bilingualism is an asset and could provide economic benefits in the workplace. 

TWI programs can take various forms, but one thing they all need to be implemented with fidelity is students who speak a language other than English.

Across the country, partner languages in dual language programs are as diverse as the English learner population and include Spanish, Mandarin Chinese, Arabic, French, Haitian-Creole, and Hmong, to name a few. The partner language offered depends on community and student demographics, as well as family demand and priorities. However, to be implemented effectively, TWI programs should aim to have equal numbers of both native English speakers and English learners. This means that the viability and sustainability of TWI programs are put into jeopardy when students classified as English learners and other immigrant-origin students who speak a language other than English at home opt out, or are pushed out, of the public education system. 

Districts across the country have been following these trends and realigning their programming accordingly over the past couple of years. In 2024, Minneapolis Public Schools announced that it would be making cuts to its Spanish dual language program as part of a larger proposal to deal with a $110 million deficit. Here, the district cited declining enrollment as a cause for the closures, despite there being a waitlist for the three dual language elementary schools. 

Last year, North Shore School District 112 in Illinois announced that it would be consolidating its dual language program, citing a 29 percent enrollment decline in dual language between 2018 and 2024. Among these declines, the absence of Spanish-speaking families was notable. The district also projected that dual language enrollment would continue to drop an additional 21 percent in the next 10 years. 

Earlier this year, two school districts in North Carolina, Harnett County Public Schools and Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools also announced plans to close numerous schools including several with dual language programs. In Chapel Hill, for example, two dual language programs—one in Spanish and one in Mandarin—would be affected by plans to close or consolidate five elementary schools. Here, the district cited “declining enrollment, aging facilities and budgetary concerns as driving factors” behind the efforts. 

In Harnett County, the district plans on discontinuing their English/Spanish dual language program citing “enrollment trends, students’ needs, and school and district priorities.” Here, a district official also remarked that the district’s dual language program has “shifted heavily towards native speakers being in that program”— as opposed to English learners and students who speak a language other than English at home—as a reason behind this change. 

English learners and other immigrant-origin students are poised to benefit the most from dual language services because they already come with linguistic assets in their home language. Dual language programs offer these students the opportunity to develop proficiency in English while maintaining their home language. Unlike their native English-speaking peers, the chance to become bilingual offers more than an economic boost for English learners and other immigrant-origin students. It represents a lifeline to their families, communities, and countries of origin that is irreplaceable. Unfortunately, research has found that even as these programs have proliferated, English learners and other immigrant-origin students have been pushed out of dual language programs by the “rising demand from privileged families.” School closures linked to enrollment declines will only further diminish the opportunity for these students to realize the full potential of dual language programs. 

English learners and immigrant-origin students disengaging with the public education system has practical implications for the programmatic design and feasibility of administering dual language programs. Unfortunately, the combination of declining enrollment and decreased funding is leading districts to make difficult decisions about existing dual language services. Recent actions by the Trump administration to fulfil its immigration enforcement and deportation agenda are likely to aggravate the situation by pushing more immigrant-origin students out of the public education system. Prior to the current political and public education climate, English learner enrollment had actually outpaced the general K–12 population in most states between 2010 and 2021. However, if English learners keep disappearing from enrollment rolls, more districts will face a difficult choice: revamp their dual language programs to serve more native English-speaking families, or eliminate them altogether.