The Jihadist Environment in Libya Today

Jihadist terrorism across Libya is still a concern, but the ISIS of yesteryear is a shell of what is was before the U.S.-led Sirte campaign took place in 2016, which expelled ISIS from the city that December.¹⁶⁵ Those remaining have apparently set up “desert camps … [to hide] fighters and weaponry” in the Sahara or have established “sleeper cells” in parts of Sirte. Despite these hidden groups, there is a potential opening to revitalize the ISIS agenda while the LNA and GNA are prioritizing Tripoli and other areas. With Haftar’s January 2020 capture of Sirte,¹⁶⁶ the dynamics may be different, but his eyes are set on the capital.

Reports from Sirte claim that U.S. military officials believe there are nearly 100 ISIS militants in Libya, down from the 5,000 Libya once had.¹⁶⁷ Militants who set up camps in the Sahara found ways to adapt. They “have seized trucks carrying fuel and gained other revenue by taxing human traffickers and arms smugglers.”¹⁶⁸ Others joined affiliates in neighboring countries, or opted to support al-Qaeda.¹⁶⁹ Despite the dwindling numbers, mysterious checkpoints started to pop up around the city. Even with relatively small numbers, ISIS has been active.

AFRICOM directed airstrikes against several ISIS and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) targets in June 2018.¹⁷⁰ While the belligerent is unknown, on July 25, 2018, AQIM’s Tunisian lead Ramzi Mansour died in the western area of Ubari when a vehicle he was traveling in was hit by an airstrike.¹⁷¹ A few months later, on November 29, 2018, AFRICOM conducted an airstrike near Al Uwaynat, targeting three AQIM vehicles, killing 11 militants.¹⁷² Less than two months after that, another three AQIM members, one of which was commander Abu Talha al-Libi, were killed in an airstrike in Jabal al Uwaynat, located in southeast Libya.¹⁷³

By the beginning of 2019, the United States had targeted AQIM once again, in coordination with the GNA, in an airstrike in the western area of Ubari.¹⁷⁴ Then, in April 2019, between five or six AQIM or Islamic State militants were killed in a nighttime air raid in southeast Libya.¹⁷⁵ Later reports alleged that four of the individuals killed were civilians.¹⁷⁶ Libyan government officials affiliated with the GNA tracked AQIM until July 2019, when they raided a compound to arrest multiple militants.¹⁷⁷

ISIS attacked the Kaam Gate checkpoint in southwest Libya in August 2018.¹⁷⁸ Their original intent to explode a car bomb failed when the bomb did not detonate. In an attempt to correct the course of their attack, ISIS resorted to gunfire and grenades, killing four and injuring three. Shortly after that incident, AFRICOM killed an ISIS leader in an airstrike who fled from Sirte.¹⁷⁹

From the middle of September through the end of December 2018, ISIS had a streak of largely successful attacks. First on September 12, ISIS attacked Libya’s National Oil Corporation,¹⁸⁰ killing two employees and wounding another 10. Then, on December 9, they killed six individuals they had abducted from al-Fuqaha¹⁸¹ in central Libya, earlier in October. An additional attack occurred in December on Libya’s Foreign Ministry, killing at least three people and injuring 10 others.¹⁸²

In May 2019, ISIS struck again. This time they targeted an LNA training camp, killing at least nine people in the hospital portion of the camp. ISIS alleged to have freed prisoners from a jail, but officials interviewed did not confirm the claim.¹⁸³

Between September and early October 2019, official statements from AFRICOM say the United States struck towns in southern Libya four times, reportedly killing 43 ISIS militants.¹⁸⁴ However, New America and Airwars tracked two additional possible strikes according to local reports in Libya. This was the most active the United States had been throughout 2019. With the exception of a strike recorded in Ubari in February 2019, which AFRICOM has not publicly confirmed, the United States’ last strike in Libya was ten months prior. Additionally, in an email from AFRICOM to New America, an official confirmed that AFRICOM forces relocated from Libya in April 2019 due to security conditions on the ground, adding, “Since that time, the command has continued to monitor conditions and terrorist activity in Libya; where appropriate, the command will take action. The command recognizes that a secure and stable Libya ensures regional security, and we remain in close coordination with the State Department.”

After ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was killed in October 2019, and replaced with Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurayshi, the Emir of ISIS in Libya, Abdul Qadr al-Najdi pledged allegiance to him.¹⁸⁵