Nice Work If You Can Get It

More than 40 million workers in the United States have filed jobless claims since government imposed shutdowns began going into effect. A transition to the most in-demand jobs may mean a pay cut, unsafe environment, or poor prospects for growth for many unemployed Americans. Is there another way forward?

New America has reported that one way to assist the millions of out of work Americans is for congress to invest in good jobs that integrate education and training with paid work, subsidizing apprenticeships or paying the wages of new hires while they attend college or attain the necessary credentials. Another is to accelerate skills-based hiring programs and policies that will make a career transition efficient and affordable.

Recently a new cause for concern has emerged in the conversation around coronavirus fallout: a jump in labor-replacing automation as the result of a recession. Brookings’ Mark Muro noted that during the last three recessions of the past 30 years, 88% of permanent job loss took place in “routine,” automatable occupations. While some industries, such as health care, education, and tech are relatively isolated from job displacement, many jobless Americans work in automation vulnerable sectors of the workforce such as restaurants and bars, hotels, personal services, and brick-and-mortar department stores. It is important for these jobseekers to be informed about long-term, resilient job projections so as not to waste time and resources on education, career paths, or credentials that may become irrelevant in a few years time.

We identified 178 low automation risk occupations that presently employ at least 5,000 workers in California and that have (prior to the coronavirus) a positive 10-year projected growth from 2016-2026. In 2018 there were more than 940,000 job postings for the top 20 such occupations.

SKILLS BASED HIRING

A key question for policymakers and employers during the recovery from this crisis is what good jobs will be created to replace the jobs lost, especially those that do not require an advanced degree to earn a family-sustaining wage. How can we set up vulnerable workers to be best suited for the changing economy in places like Fresno county, where only 15% of sales workers and 8% of food service workers have a Bachelor's degree?

With the recent upheaval in the labor market, supporting flexible learning to help workers adapt is more important than ever. The ability to acquire new qualifications and in-demand skills is one way to strengthen resilience to economic shocks and help connect workers to stable, resilient job opportunities. It is also likely that many Americans are better prepared for an unconventional career shift than they know. In Fresno, San Francisco, and the state of California, Microsoft Excel, Customer Service, and Communication Skills were the top three skills requested in March and April 2020.

In times of economic shocks and recessions, unemployed Americans should inventory their top skills while employers should also search for opportunities to leverage these in a different capacity. New, personalized online education and skills matching platforms like Skillful and SkillsMatch are innovating hiring models and thinking creatively about how to avoid biases and expedite what is often a cumbersome process for workers without college degrees. The following resources include free and tuition-based programs as well as digital workshops and MOOCs to help workers with upskilling and certifications:

IBM Skills Gateway
Skillshare
Udemy
CodeAcademy
General Assembly
Hubspot Academy
Coursera
Microsoft
Myskillsmyfuture
EdX
MIT

For many workers the most efficient pathways to new positions too often do not lead to resilient, stable, or better quality jobs. As a result of the coronavirus, many displaced workers are turning to jobs that do not provide family-sustaining wages, health care, or guarantee protections from automation in the long-term. As a quarter of all Americans struggle to plan for an uncertain future, education, workforce development, and training ecosystems need to step up, and encourage nontraditional pathways to better jobs. Teamwork and imagination are two skills we could start with to get there.