How Workers Imagine Their Jobs in the Future

We asked interviewees open-ended questions about how they think their jobs and their workplaces will look in 20 years. Without prompting, workers painted a deeply pessimistic picture of the future of grocery, retail, and fast food work. Most envisioned far fewer people working in the front end of retail, fast food, and grocery stores in the future, and some even predicted that there will be no humans at all. Clerical and administrative workers were more measured, predicting an increase in technology and automation in the future with a less dramatic impact on jobs.

Food, grocery, and retail workers are pessimistic about the future for humans in their stores

Nearly unanimously, these workers were pessimistic about the future of human labor in their stores. Often, they described doomsday scenarios of a future with few—or even no—humans working in front-end jobs like cashiers and servers. A mid-career fast-food worker, 44, said, “robots, we know it is coming. I don’t know how exactly, but it will change. The people know it will change. Robots and machines will be doing the work, not people. They will not need people in those jobs.” A 59-year-old grocery cashier saw the same thing: “I think robots and computers are going to do everything. I think it's gonna be robots that pack your order and you pay over the telephone and just go pick it up. I’m not even sure you would go into the store. I see that with the self-checkout now—it’s less people, and they don’t need them anymore. I have no idea where all the grocery workers would go. It’s sad if that happens, because they’d have no use for people anymore.”

Workers in clothing retail also expressed pessimism about the future of jobs in retail and stores. A young co-manager in a clothing store, 22, said

in 20 years, I don’t think the mall will be here. In the last year, there has been a decline in the number of stores here in the mall—one store will close, then another will close. Everyone is shopping online and not coming in. I see the shifts. We get so many online orders sent to our store. In the future, the people who keep coming in will be the people that didn’t grow up with technology. The younger generation won’t come in, unless it was a cool experience. For instance, our company is talking about wanting to make our store more interactive in the next 10 years—using technology when people try on our merchandise, or holograms so customers can see what an item looks like if we don’t have it in the store. In the future, I think there will be a cut in stores and there won’t be as many of our store around. There will be fewer jobs for people like us, who have a love for fashion. People do this job for the love of fashion.

Workers in grocery, retail, and fast food feel they are a cost that employers will try to eliminate with technology

Often, interviewees framed the job risk from technology as a choice by companies to prioritize making money. Many workers assumed their employers would make technology decisions with a focus on their bottom line—as they feel they do today on issues ranging from compensation to hours and benefits eligibility. Many interviewees said that their employers did not care about them and they felt that they represent a cost that their employer would eagerly cut if technology made it possible to replace them. A manager, 40, told us that in “the grocery store of the future, I say you’ll see a lot less employees. Because everything will be the machines, like self-checkout. They’ll try to save as much money as they can, and that’s the way they probably see it. One checker for six self-checkouts, that saves money. More computers, less people. Back in the day, you would think in grocery business, you're set, you'll have a job forever. I don't see it like that anymore. I see it as it's not safe and you don't know how things are gonna be run.”

Younger workers agree. "In the future, I see a lot of technology in fast food. Now there are people who will be able to help you. In the future, there will be more machines, but it will be terrible,” a fast food worker, 21, said, continuing, “machines don’t get sick and you don’t have to pay them. Employees are replaceable. Technology can help the workers, but instead they replace workers." A 25-year-old courtesy clerk said, "who knows if we'll have checkers because everything is self-served. I think it's just sad because it just takes away jobs. It's hard enough now to find a job as it is, and then there's just one specific field just completely being wiped out,” in the grocery business. “Of course, you always want to advance things. But people need jobs too. I think it's just another way to cut cost without having to pay people."

An older worker recognized how expensive he was to his company, admitting, “technology is just going. They're trying to figure out different things to cut cost. And so I'm the most costly thing there, because they have to pay my benefits.” This grocery cashier, 60, continued: “if it's all automated, all they have to do is keep up with the machines. So it's inevitable. I don't know how far it will go. Maybe we'll have two people there, I don't know.”

Clerical and administrative workers imagine more technology in the future and gradual or limited job loss

Nearly all of the clerical and administrative workers we spoke with envisioned more technology in their future roles. They held mixed views about the impact of this technology on the quantity of administrative jobs. Some interviewees anticipated that technology would create less demand for humans, resulting in fewer administrative workers hired in the future. Others predicted that their roles would still require human labor and that technology will help them do their jobs quicker and more efficiently but not reducing the number of people employed. Others imagined that technology would evolve in the future but were not sure what it might look like or what the impact will be on the humans in the role.

One administrative assistant, 58, with several decades of experience predicts that her job will look quite different in the future, but that it will still exist. She anticipates more technology in the role enabling administrative assistants like her to work faster and support more senior managers than they do now, including those who previously did not have admin support. But she envisions the core duties of scheduling, meals, meetings, and travel will stay the same.

My job in 20 years will be a lot different. I'm going to guess that we'll advance a lot because of all the new technology. We usually pick right up on that. Our senior managers are always trying new things, like, ‘‘OK, let's go do this. OK, that's not working anymore, let's go move to this and go get something else." So yeah, I can definitely see it being more advanced and quicker. And admins having more people they support. I'm kind of an exception of having so many people. I think it's gonna be more the norm in 20 years.

Similarly, another administrative assistant, also 58, in a different company predicted more technology but the same number of administrative professionals performing her role in the future. “I imagine there will be a lot of growth in tech use on the job. I don’t think the number of people will change, though, because we need the people to drive the business,” she said. “Technology can only do so much. We have so many websites we can use for our business, but people in our company have to talk to clients. You will need a person supporting the people to do that work.”

A legal assistant, 59, imagines that evolving technology in her law firm could pose a risk to her position in the future. She would not necessarily advise a younger person to pursue the role.

I don't know that legal assistants will be around forever. I don't know if I would encourage someone young to go this route. I think more and more, the younger attorneys type most of their own stuff whereas the older ones dictate. So that has changed. If you work for a younger attorney who likes to be self-sufficient and do their own work, then really all you're doing is making coffees, folding papers, putting them in an envelope, and sending them out. Even the envelopes you can print from the program. Those of us who are good typists, I don't know, is that going? That may not even be necessary down the road if everything is swiped. So in 15 years, I'm sure it'll change. How it'll change, I don't know.

A younger administrative assistant sees technology as a key part of her role. She predicts that some of the routine work in her job could be automated, requiring fewer people overall and allowing administrative assistants to take on more work. Given all the technology changes in her job, one administrative assistant, 25, suggested that the person doing her job in the future should be tech savvy. “They're going to need someone that's really good at computer stuff, because you have to learn how to navigate the stuff all the time,” she said. “I think they could automate some of what I do with reporting and other stuff. There has to be a way to automatically send a document. I will say it seems like I could support two teams, instead of one, especially when I stop doing some of the reports that get automated. So maybe you would need less admin.” She added, “I definitely see the role changing,” though “it is hard to imagine.”

Workers see technology changing around them at work, in life, and in popular culture, fueling their pessimism

The views of workers we interviewed were informed by the technology they see all around them—in their own workplaces, at other stores, and in TV and movies. Predicting the future of their job with fewer humans, many food, grocery, and retail workers frequently pointed to technology changes at competitor stores or other workplaces. Several interviewees referenced Amazon Go’s cashier-less convenience store as a harbinger of the changes ahead. A grocery cashier, 60, said, “In 20 years, I think the number of humans with my cashier job will be limited. You see right now where Amazon’s got it where there is no cashier, right? You just have your card or whatever it is and it rings everything up as you go out the door and it takes the money out of your card.” A younger customer service employee, 39, agreed that "in 5–10 years, [retail chain] will eliminate a lot more cashier positions. They have this thing at [another retail store], where they use artificial intelligence to scan the shelves to count inventory. I think we are going to get those too. Twenty years from now, there will just be maybe one or two cashiers to handle age-restricted items, that’s it." A 26-year-old fast food server was philosophical about this change: “We're moving into that technology age. Technology is always evolving and people are getting replaced with computers. If you ever walk into [a grocery chain], you'll see the self-checkouts get bigger, and bigger, and bigger and you'll see less employees working on the floor. Computers move a lot faster than we do as humans.”

An older grocery pricing clerk, 55, saw this happening already in other places

I don’t think that they will have a person doing my job in 20 years. I see them going to pricing being computerized. That’s already happening in Europe and in Japan. I know even with the New England area, they’re using robots to stock the shelves so they won’t need as many bodies. The robots are actually taking items out of the box and putting them on the shelf. Maybe we will only need a couple people just to manage things. The company’s motivation is saving lots of money by not having to pay people.

Often, workers pointed to broader technology changes and futuristic images that they have seen in television and movies. Popular culture contributed to their views of a robotic future. Tangible hardware, futuristic robots, and human-less stores and machines in the news have left an impression on many of our interviewees. On television and in movies, they see glimpses of robots and autonomous vehicles. A bookkeeper for a grocery, 29, said that in 20 years, “I really don't feel like the grocery store will need humans to operate the register and do things of that sort.” The bookkeeper added

When you watch stuff on TV, you wonder where people get these ideas from. I just truly believe that they are already working on technology and they're just now showing us that this is what it's going to be in the next 10 years or so. We might not even have to go shopping in 20 years! They might have robots go pick up all our groceries and drive it to us….You've seen the commercial with the Domino's machine where it drives the pizza to you? Everything will be this way soon. And for retail, as far as grocery stores, they won't need cashiers, they'll have self-checkouts. All 20 registers will be self-checkouts.

Occasionally, interviewees pivoted from the specifics of their own job to reflect more broadly on the prospects of a robotic future. Often, they expressed concerns about the risks to society from these changes, but not about any specific technology risks that they imagine playing out in their own jobs. For example, a retail cashier, 18, said, “human labor is a dying commodity. Now there are some jobs that robots just can’t do, but eventually no, not really. I see the dystopian books, artificial intelligence, and RoboCop.” This was not a cheerful picture: “My brain hurts. We’re just going to be lazy. It is going to be like WALL-E. We’ll order our items online, it will read our eyes. I guess they don’t need a human to do that either? I am scared. I couldn’t tell you what will happen. How is everyone going to make money? Will everything be free?” A 65-year-old legal assistant agreed in more general terms

I just hope it doesn't evolve to the point where there's a computer robot sitting at my desk. I hope that a human being is still going to be the person…sitting here. That's what worries me, because when you look at the auto industry, where the robots are there, people are getting replaced. I think anybody anywhere would be concerned now…Food service, don't they have little robots too, that are serving up meals, taking orders, and giving you your food order? So, it's kind of scary. Where are people going to fit in? People need jobs. Well, what jobs are going to be there, if we have computers filling them and computer robots everywhere? I don't know. It could be like a science fiction movie, very futuristic.

Workers doubt that technology can replace humans in jobs that require customer service, empathy, and communication

The workers we interviewed were quick to dismiss the risk of automation to job tasks and roles that entail extensive person-to-person engagement, empathy, communication, and excellent customer service. Many doubted the ability of robots and computers to effectively perform these duties and felt their own roles were therefore safe. An administrative assistant, 25, said, “right now, we still have people answering our phones. I don’t know if they would ever change that because we have a lot of people and clients calling in, and people definitely have to answer those.” A retail cashier, 39, agreed: “People will never have their life together, so customer service is not going to change.”

Their skepticism is often well-founded. Skills like empathy and persuasion are among those that existing technology is least capable of automating. A 32-year-old administrative assistant in a medical office working with high-risk obstetrics patients reflected on the need for humans to provide empathy and good customer service, even despite the push to save money by automating systems.

They're trying to get away from people doing as much hands-on work. They just don't want to pay staff. But then if the patient has questions, or they don’t understand, or they're trying to get something that is a special case, you need a person for that. I really don’t know how they can have an automated robo thing for the job that I do. It's just a sensitive thing if you're having surgery because you have cancer. You don't want to talk to a computer. You would like someone to call you to say, “your surgery is going to be this day. Please do this as the prep and this is what you have to do.” Because you are scared.

A young fast food worker, 18, made a similar point about his interest in studying mortuary science, as this field “also requires human to human contact. You don’t want a computer buying caskets.”

A 40-year-old public sector information clerk with a large administrative component in her county job does not feel that her job can be automated because it requires communication, political sensitivity, and adapting to changing circumstances

I don't anticipate my job being automated. I don't work on a factory assembly line. There's too much communication that needs to happen. There's also political ramifications—and a machine isn't going to know what that even looks like. I don't even know how you would program a machine to do that. Twenty years from now, I still expect a physical person will be sitting at a desk with a computer. I think it comes down to communication—you can't automate that.…I just feel like there are multiple layers of communication that have to happen and in person and verbally, so I don’t see that being automated or going away.

An assistant manager at a clothing retail store, 22, predicts that shoppers will increasingly buy merchandise online. But stores still need some humans to serve customers who need extra help, don’t know their size, or have specific questions.

Employees would be needed in the store for helping customers with fittings. A lot of people come into our store if they lose weight, or they're just not fully confident, and they'll ask you for help to find their right size. That’s one of the most rewarding ways I guess you can help. So in the future, the sales staff would probably still be working but probably focusing a lot more on the measuring and fittings for customers, rather than selling all the merchandise or clothes that we sell now.

Workers worry about what technology means for their counterparts in the future

Many interviewees expressed concern for how workers will fare with technological change in the future. Here are three examples:

“I am kind of worried about the future. A lot of my friends in retail didn’t go to school, and they are still managers of companies and make more money than I am and having great careers. But they never went to college. They walked into a mall and started at the bottom as a sales associate and worked themselves up. In 20 years, you won’t be able to do that. You are going to have to go to school and have something to back up what you want to do.” —co-manager, clothing retail, 22

“They’re gonna have to just go find something else, which is scary. For a lot of people, that’s all they’ve done.” —grocery manager, 45

"Everything's going to come down to technology; more people would probably be forced to try to get computers to do everything…If you're not going to get in that type of field, I really don't know what's going to be left for you to do." —grocery courtesy clerk, 25

Workers are most pessimistic about jobs where technology already plays a central role and are often more concerned about the risk to jobs other than their own

The workers we interviewed were universally pessimistic about the future of work like cashier jobs, where they have already observed self-checkout machines replace humans. It was harder for workers to anticipate risks to other jobs where they had not already seen visible automation. This was true even of their own roles. Often, the workers we interviewed who did not work at the front of the store were more worried about the future for cashiers than they were about their own jobs and did not necessarily perceive risks, even as other interviewees who held similar roles described having already experienced automation.

For example, a bakery manager, 45, is very pessimistic about job losses in the front of the store but is less worried about her role.

For my department, you are always going to physically need a body, because we’re baking everything and decorating cakes. I don’t feel that these jobs could necessarily be eliminated, unless they bring in all frozen product and you just thaw and sell them and don’t have to package or bake anything.…They have gone back and forth with cakes coming in already decorated. And there’s been small things they’ve done with us, but overall not as big as I feel it could be with the outer side of the grocery department.

Two workers we spoke with who had bookkeeping roles at grocery stores expressed a strongly pessimistic view of the future, with few humans employed as cashiers and other front-end roles. In contrast, both felt that their own roles could not be eliminated by technology, as machines were not capable of the duties they perform. The first, 47, said, “if the company is still around in 20 years, there might be a bookkeeper. Everyone else will be a robot. They are going to need someone in there to count the money, do bookwork, and deposit the money. You need to be able to find solutions to problems. Is the robot going to be able to find the money you’re looking for?” The second, 29, agreed

I think that you will always need a person for bookkeeping. Is the robot going to count the money for the machine? I think you will need a person for that. Same with customer services. If I needed to come and return something, is the robot going to come and pick it up from my house, take it back and return it and then bring me my money back? It's a lot. The receiver, who sits in the back to bring the products in. The baker who bakes the cakes, because will the robot be baking the cake? But you never know, they're doing everything else, so…I don't know. I think certain positions will still be needed. But cashiers, I don't think so.

Their views contrast with the experience of Rebecca, a 36-year-old retail cashier from Three Examples of Labor-Displacing Automation who described how her employer automated her bookkeeping position with a cash-sorting machine. Several interviewees acknowledged considering the potential impact of new technologies and automation on their job and dismissing concerns. For instance, a legal assistant, 59, said, "with the dictation that can be transcripted through voice recognition, I thought of that.” She added, “but I still think you need a human being around. They've got to at least proof it, if nothing else, and I am a good proofreader."