Conclusion

The natural hazards and human vulnerability of the Indo-Pacific region are on the rise, due to climate change, population growth, and migration into megacities. This is a vital concern for the United States, given the economic and strategic importance of the region now and in the future. There are three important ways the United States can help prepare for the region’s hazardous future, all consistent with the international Sendai Framework the United States committed to in 2015:

1. Improve the understanding of current and projected hazards and vulnerabilities, including by sharing information with nations in the region. That means incorporating improved early warning technologies and actionable climate change projections into military and other government strategy and planning activities.
2. Invest more in resilient communities, from public health to public works, through civilian missions such as development, aid, trade, and commerce. This, at times, may mean focusing on programs and projects that don’t seem directly related to disaster mitigation or security, such as economic development, child and maternal health, and job creation.
3. Actively anticipate and plan for a future with more frequent or large scale humanitarian and disaster relief missions. That means making sure the right personnel, equipment, training, and partnerships are in place in “blue sky” times before disasters strike, and not just as a lesser-included-case. The tempo of humanitarian and disaster relief will rise in a way that requires a more deliberate approach to planning.

The capacity for humanitarian and disaster relief can be a comparative advantage in the Indo-Pacific that the United States either keeps or cedes to China. Or these missions could become a way for the two nations to cooperate with each other to the benefit of everyone in the region. After all, both American and Chinese military investments are focused on readiness for war when it comes to their relationship with each other, even though neither prefers such a ruinous outcome. Working together to prevent and respond to humanitarian disasters in the area both countries depend on for their prosperity would be an important confidence-building measure. As climate change makes the conditions even more volatile and destructive, building that mutual confidence will become far more useful than moving down the road toward conflict.