Key Findings

Recent developments in Libya from June 2018 through February 2020:

• Since 2012, there have been 4,349 air, drone, and artillery strikes recorded in Libya, 1,863 of those have taken place since June 2018. In the last 20 months, more than half of all strikes have taken place, yielding between 333 civilian deaths, taking the lowest estimate, and as many as 467, taking the highest estimate.
• Reported civilian deaths from airstrikes in Libya have increased considerably since June 2018. However, the United States’ contribution to these numbers is relatively low. Civilian fatality numbers are far less than those of the U.S. air campaigns in Yemen and Pakistan conflicts, and closer to the known civilian recorded fatalities in Somalia.
• According to news reports and accounts on social media, at least 611 civilians were killed in all strikes by all belligerents since 2012, taking the lowest estimate, and as many as 899 killed, by the highest estimate; and at least 1,820 total individuals (including combatants and unknown) were killed, taking the lowest estimate, and as many as 2,440 by the highest estimate.
• In addition to civilian fatalities, according to news reports and individual accounts on social media, at least 871 civilians were wounded in airstrikes, by the lowest estimate, and 1,384, taking the highest estimate.
• Between 2012 and 2018, the highest number of strikes were recorded in 2016, with 1,015 conducted. This was in part due to the 2016 U.S. military operation targeting ISIS that involved 495 air and drone strikes on the city of Sirte. However, in 2019, more than 1,600 strikes were conducted, or 25 percent of all strikes recorded since 2012.
• Most strikes in 2019 occurred in Tripoli–1,087 individual strikes–followed by Misrata and Jabal al Gharbi (outside Tripoli). Between September 2012 and June 2018, most strikes reportedly occurred in Benghazi, Sirte, and Derna, cities that were high-conflict zones during the Libyan rebellion and the 2011 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) intervention. ISIS controlled territory in both Derna and Sirte in 2015 and 2016, contributing to high volumes of strikes in those locations.

The proxy warfare effect in Libya:

• General Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) has reportedly conducted at least 2,348 airstrikes in Libya since 2014—more than any other belligerent. Haftar’s ability to attract foreign backing has amplified the LNA’s military capabilities. With assistance (in varying degrees) from countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Sudan, and Russia, the LNA accounts for more than one-half of all strikes and more than one-third of civilian deaths as well as one-third of overall deaths, highlighting its increasingly aggressive strategy to take over western Libya. Strikes by the LNA reportedly resulted in 214 civilian deaths at a minimum and potentially as many as 356 noncombatant deaths, based on the highest estimates.
• An important feature of the conflict in Libya post-2011 has been the rise of airstrikes by multiple domestic and international belligerents. At least seven foreign countries and three domestic Libyan factions are reported to have conducted air and drone strikes in Libya since 2012. Some strike allegations report different parties as responsible for the same strike (e.g., a local report might claim the LNA conducted a strike, while an international outlet reported that Egypt was responsible for the same action).
• Turkey entered the conflict in 2019, backing the Government of National Accord (GNA) by reportedly conducting airstrikes as well as sending soldiers from Syria; and Chad conducted a helicopter strike in 2018 along its border with Libya. Both countries have more than 1,000 combatant foot soldiers each in Libya.
• The United Arab Emirates, which conducts actions in support of the LNA, has reportedly conducted at least 131 strikes in Libya, which have resulted in at least 135 and potentially as many as 185 civilian deaths.
• Egypt also conducts strikes alongside the LNA, as well as unilateral actions against suspected militants on its borders. At least 42 strikes have been declared or reported, which have resulted in at least 13 and at most 14 civilian deaths, according to local and international sources.
• France has reportedly conducted at least five strikes in Libya since 2012, which have resulted in a minimum of four and potentially as many as eight civilian deaths. France might also be responsible for seven strikes in 2018, likely conducted with the coordination of the LNA.
• According to our data, the United States has conducted 550 strikes on ISIS targets in Libya since the NATO intervention, primarily against ISIS in Sirte in 2016, which according to Libyan reports resulted in 11 to 21 civilian fatalities, based on the minimum and maximum estimates in our database.