Future Security Scenarios Lab

The Future Security Scenarios Lab at New America helps decision makers navigate accelerating technological change, geopolitical volatility, and mounting global risks by integrating advanced foresight tools with insights from decision theory. Using scenario planning, forecasting, strategic simulations, and systems analysis, the Lab examines how cognitive biases, mental models, and human judgment shape national security outcomes, equipping leaders to anticipate emerging challenges, stress-test assumptions, and design more resilient strategies for an uncertain world.

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Grounded in a mission that spans AI and nuclear futures, internal force multiplication across New America, and broader field building, the Lab explores how technologies and shifting power dynamics interact with the cognitive foundations of security. By pairing structured foresight with an understanding of how decisions are actually made under uncertainty, the Lab democratizes security thinking, cultivates a diverse community of practitioners, and delivers actionable insights that help policymakers respond with clarity, agility, and confidence.