What Iran Signals About the Future of Nuclear Arms Control
The war in Iran being waged by the U.S. and Israel may further a shift in nuclear weapons management.
Future Security Scenarios Lab
A project of Future Security
The Future Security Scenarios Lab at New America helps decision makers navigate accelerating technological change, geopolitical volatility, and mounting global risks by integrating advanced foresight tools with insights from decision theory. Using scenario planning, forecasting, strategic simulations, and systems analysis, the Lab examines how cognitive biases, mental models, and human judgment shape national security outcomes, equipping leaders to anticipate emerging challenges, stress-test assumptions, and design more resilient strategies for an uncertain world.
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Grounded in a mission that spans AI and nuclear futures, internal force multiplication across New America, and broader field building, the Lab explores how technologies and shifting power dynamics interact with the cognitive foundations of security. By pairing structured foresight with an understanding of how decisions are actually made under uncertainty, the Lab democratizes security thinking, cultivates a diverse community of practitioners, and delivers actionable insights that help policymakers respond with clarity, agility, and confidence.
Featured
After New START: The Case for Disciplined Ambiguity
Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity
Experts
Callahan Farr
Research Associate, Future Security Scenarios Lab
Andrew Reddie
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Future Security Scenarios Lab
Mariam Kvaratskhelia
Research Associate, Future Security Scenarios Lab
Peter Warren Singer
Strategist & Senior Fellow
Alexander H. Montgomery
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Future Security Program
Amy J. Nelson
Director, Future Security Scenarios Lab; Senior Fellow, Future Security Program