Reflections From the First Annual Conference on the Future of War

On February 24-25, 2015 New America and Arizona State
University held the First Annual Future of War Conference. The event featured
top thinkers and policymakers from academia, major media, think tanks, the
military, government agencies, and civil society. The conference was
co-sponsored by CNN, had over 400 attendees, and over 9,000 viewers via
live-streaming.

The following are some key insights from the event:

1. The future of war will be defined
by uncertainty

2. Small wars will continue and the
United States may continue to lack an effective strategic response

3. The future of war will increasingly
involve unmanned and autonomous weapons systems

4. Cyberspace will expand as a key
domain of conflict

5. The United States’ security capacity
will increasingly depend upon the ability to integrate multiple capabilities
and adapt to change

6. Armed conflicts will involve hybrids
of state and non-state adversaries

7. War will increasingly involve the
private sector

8. Existing legal and political systems
are unprepared for the changing nature of war

9. Cities and megacities will play a
growing role in defining global security threats

10. The invasion of Iraq will continue to
loom large in the United States’ strategic thinking

11. Viruses, and diseases, both natural
and man-made, as well as biological modifications will challenge international
security

12. Civil/military relations may stress
the United States’ capacity to address future threats

13. Climate change will shape the future
of war

14. Big data and mass surveillance will
threaten civil liberties and human rights and play a growing role in future
conflicts

15. Interstate war will remain rare,
elements of global violence may decline, but armed conflict will retain many of
its core qualities