Ed Projections Suggest Shifting Enrollment Patterns

Last week, the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) released “Projections of Education Statistics to 2018,” a report predicting enrollment and expenditure increases in education over the coming decade. These projections can provide important information to states and school districts as they seek to invest new funds available through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Strategic investments today can help states and school districts cope with rapidly increasing populations, postsecondary institutions prepare for the shifting needs of those seeking higher education, and policymakers rethink investments to better serve schools and students.

PK-12

According to the NCES study, public school enrollment is expected to increase by 9 percent between 2006 and 2018 from 55.3 million to 59.8 million students. This increase will occur mostly in the South and West, with the greatest increases in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas. The Northeast is projected to see a decrease, led by Rhode Island and New York. Nationally, the greatest enrollment increases are expected to occur in the PK-8 grades.

The report predicts that the number of public high school graduates will increase 11 percent between the 2005-06 and the 2018-19 school years. Increases are primarily expected in the South and West, with Nevada, Utah, and Georgia experiencing the largest increases. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia are predicted to see decreases in graduates, led by Rhode Island and North Dakota.

NCES also predicts that total expenditures for K-12 education will increase 36 percent between 2005-06 and 2018-19 to $626 billion, while per pupil expenditures are expected to increase 24 percent to $11,600.[1]

These changes in student population are significant for several reasons. States like Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and others with rapidly growing populations are likely to experience significant stresses on state and local budgets as school enrollments increase. Additionally, traditional education funding sources, like property taxes, have become less stable and reliable in the recent economic downturn. To ease future pressure on state and local budgets, all states, but especially those with growing populations, must begin to think about new and more sustainable ways to fund education or commit to spending more funds on education from all sources.

Postsecondary

Enrollment in postsecondary institutions is predicted to increase between 2007 and 2018 to 20.6 million students from 18.2 million. NCES predicts that undergraduate enrollment will increase by 12 percent, with larger increases in graduate and first-professional (what is that? That’s a little jargony) degrees. Public and private institution enrollments are expected to grow at the same rate, 13 percent.

Between 2006-07 and 2018-19, the number of Associate’s degrees conferred is projected to increase by 25 percent. In the same time period, the number of Bachelor’s degrees conferred is expected to grow by 19 percent.

This dramatic increase in students seeking Associate’s degrees can be partly attributed to the current economic recession. Workers are seeking additional skills to qualify them for higher-paying jobs or exiting the workforce temporarily due to lack of opportunities. Additionally, with the cost of higher education continuing to rise despite the economic downturn, it’s no surprise that many students are turning to community colleges for postsecondary training. Students who otherwise may have pursued Bachelor’s degrees will be able to attend community college for a fraction of the cost.

This brings to light a greater issue facing higher education in the future. If the cost of attending a 4-year institution continues to rise at the rate it is now, the additional 19 percent of degree obtainers are likely to take on potentially hundreds of thousands in student debt. This model is likely to prove unsustainable in the future unless 4 year institutions are able to cut costs or lower tuition through new tactics like virtual education.

Conclusion

States, school districts, institutions of higher education, and policymakers should heed these predictions – enrollments at all levels are expected to increase, demanding greater investments of resources and funds.

Luckily, there are some ways states, localities, and institutions of higher education can prepare for the inevitable:

• State and federal policymakers should begin exploring new ways to fund public education that do not rely entirely on property taxes and other variable sources of revenue. This change can also ensure greater equity in funding among schools and school districts.
• States and school districts in regions with rapidly growing populations should begin creating infrastructure to handle increases in enrollments like school facilities and highly qualified teaching forces.
• Postsecondary institutions of all kinds must either find ways to keep costs down or dramatically rethink how they provide instruction to students so that higher education is attainable for all high school graduates.

[1] Expenditures are in constant 2006-07 dollars.