Testing the Tool

On-the-ground experience and expertise rooted in a particular time and place can best characterize the pathways that lead toward—or away from—violent conflict. The purpose of the tool is to open a window onto these causal paths and allow a user to inspect, measure, and systematically investigate the relevant factors, including those that are strongly correlated with conflict outcomes but are frequently ignored.

This case study is meant to demonstrate that cycle and show how the tool can provide quick and easy access to meaningful data about the dynamics that local experts identify as critically important to conflict. In this way the tool supports decision-making by defense, development, diplomacy, and humanitarian actors considering how to prevent or manage instability, unrest, or conflict in a given area.

We traveled to Ethiopia in May 2019 to test this vision of the tool's utility. Applying our research in a specific place allowed us to evaluate the tool's capabilities and shortcomings in the context of real local conditions and needs, and incorporate potential users’ detailed feedback into the design of the tool. Furthermore, speaking with locals yielded valuable insights about our conceptual framework and the ability of the model to capture the causal dynamics at play in the real world. In the case of Ethiopia, these local conditions and concerns frequently revolve around water.