Conclusion

A climate housing crisis is likely unavoidable. It may first manifest as a financial meltdown, in which the insurance and mortgage industries overhaul homeowners coverage and loans, respectively, causing certain property values to plummet. Homeowners will see their equity disappear and then many could default on their mortgages and be left with insufficient funds to relocate to safer ground.

In the decades after, as the ocean swallows entire communities, the U.S. will have little choice but to relocate residents en masse. The federal government might manage this hasty retreat through eminent domain takings—the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is currently authorized to conduct compulsory buyouts—or through mass emergency buyouts post-disaster.

These last-minute adaptation efforts would be incredibly expensive, chaotic, and traumatic. The fewer Americans that the government must relocate in this manner, however, the less costly and less hectic the process. In fact, if decision-makers are purposeful and imaginative in how they plan retreat, the strategy can socially and economically stimulate previously stagnant cities and help rectify past social and economic injustices for historically marginalized communities.

The challenge, of course, is to overcome the inertia of current approaches. The science and economics are clear. Now we just need to act.