Introduction

Work as we know it is shifting rapidly. Over the next decade and beyond, how will artificial intelligence and automation change work and opportunity in cities like Elkhart and Goshen, Ind.?

The Elkhart-Goshen metro area and other communities like it across the country will be at the front lines of this change. Elkhart and Goshen are both manufacturing stalwarts in Indiana—the most manufacturing-intensive state in America—and are dominated by automotive-related production. Elkhart is perhaps best known as the recreational vehicle (RV) manufacturing capital of the world, making it a reliable bellwether of (and favorite political emblem during) economic booms and downturns. It is a dramatic understatement to say that the region understands the opportunities and hardships of industry change, worker displacement, and recovery. But this understanding does not necessarily translate to a cohesive or shared vision for moving forward in the face of automation.

For one, automation in the RV industry is not viewed as a certain or predictable force. When business is steady and pay “on the floor” is good, the talent pools are deep and it is difficult to interrupt the momentum to introduce more automation, especially among small to mid-sized RV producers. Michael Hicks, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University, says, “What ought to worry Elkhart is not the business cycle—not the recession to recoveries—those come and go. What they really ought to be worried about is at some point there’s going to be a very strong turn toward automation of that industry. I don’t know if it’s going to happen in 10 years or 20 years.”¹

The prospect of business experiencing a severe slowdown as it did during the Great Recession makes the long-term costs of automation, rather than the immediate costs of reducing payroll, a difficult pill to swallow. There is also a cultural driver. Elkhart-Goshen is a region that prides itself on work ethic and multigenerational relationships with employers. Here, automation is more than a business consideration, it’s a very personal one.

RV and automotive production are not the only industries in the region; automation and artificial intelligence are considerations for employer and employee talent and mobility across all local industries. And it is not lack of sophistication or vision that sometimes leaves local leaders at an impasse as to how to best plan to prepare their community and workers. Rather, it is a conversation that is happening against the backdrop of a region that is significantly more vulnerable to change—one that has a lower educational attainment and, in recent history, a more disproportionate credential-to-earnings ratio than much of America.

“What [Elkhart] really ought to be worried about is at some point there’s going to be a very strong turn toward automation of that industry. I don’t know if it’s going to happen in 10 years or 20 years.”

In the Elkhart-Goshen metro, more people are still able to earn a higher income without postsecondary education, which is a trend that is fading quickly and is unlikely to be sustainable.

Even in the face of challenges, the Elkhart-Goshen metro area leadership is energized, innovative, and committed, making it an excellent candidate for a partnership with New America. To help Elkhart-Goshen prepare for this future, New America kicked off a ShiftLab in December 2018, with support from Walmart Giving. At the December pop-up design lab, many of the greater Elkhart-Goshen region’s economic, educational, and civic leaders came together to consider the impact of technology and automation on work in their hometowns. Local leaders, joined by peers and national leaders, will continue to meet throughout 2019 to develop a long-term, place-based vision for opportunity. The Elkhart-Goshen ShiftLab is the first of New America’s Rural ShiftLabs, also working in the Uplands Region of southern Indiana, in northwest Arkansas, and in southern West Virginia.

To bring a data-driven lens to ShiftLabs, New America partnered with leading labor market analytics company Burning Glass Technologies to conduct a first-of-its-kind study on the likely impact of automation on jobs in the greater Elkhart-Goshen region.² We ask: Of the thousands of jobs held by Elkhart-Goshen workers today, which could be performed by existing technology? Which occupations and skills are at greatest risk of automation, and who holds those jobs today? To answer these questions, we combined and analyzed Burning Glass data on the likelihood of a computer being able to do a job using existing technology, as well as Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on occupations in Elkhart-Goshen and the nation.

To be sure, emerging technologies also will create many jobs, including entirely new jobs that have yet to be conceived. This is a familiar pattern—since 1980, about half of all job growth has come from the creation and expansion of brand-new jobs.³ On balance, automation and technology may create more jobs than they eliminate, but predictions of the number and types of jobs that will be created are outside the scope of this study.

In the Elkhart-Goshen metro, more people are still able to earn a higher income without postsecondary education, which is a trend that is fading quickly and is unlikely to be sustainable.

The findings of our analysis are clear: Automation will have a widespread impact on jobs in the Elkhart-Goshen region in the years ahead, and especially on low-skilled jobs and low-paid jobs. In some cases, technology will eliminate jobs already at high-risk of automation. In many more cases, technology will change them—sometimes dramatically.