Are Federal Stimulus Funds Saving Education Jobs?

The Center on Reinventing Public Education at the University of Washington recently released a report, K-12 Job Trends Amidst Stimulus Funds: Early Findings by Marguerite Roza, Chris Lozier, and Christina Sepe. The report attempts to determine whether federal stimulus funds distributed through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) have met the bill’s stated goal of saving and creating K-12 education jobs. They found that the federal stimulus funds have saved states from making massive cuts to the education workforce, but have not led states to create new jobs.

 <p>The authors began by determining the overall trends in education jobs from school year 2009 to school year 2010. To do this, they compared published 2009 jobs data to mid-year jobs data for the current school year from 21 states. The authors determined that K-12 employment declined in 13 of the 21 states from 2009-2010, and grew in 8 states. On average, they found that K-12 job availability declined by 1.4 percent. By applying this proportion to the national K-12 workforce, the authors estimate that 87,019 education jobs have been lost nationally.</p>     <p>Next, the authors performed analyses to determine the proportion of K-12 education jobs that are supported by ARRA funds. They used 2008 employment and expenditure figures to determine total expenditures per employee, adjusted the figures to 2010 levels, and compared them to reported ARRA expenditures for the 2010 school year. Using this model, they determined that 342,758 jobs are funded by ARRA in the 2010 school year – about 5.5 percent of all K-12 jobs.</p>     <p>It is clear from this analysis that ARRA funds have saved states from making much more dramatic cuts to the K-12 education workforce. At the same time, however, it suggests that ARRA funds have not led states to create new education jobs. While job creation was an explicit goal of the ARRA, new on-going expenses would have created funding cliffs when ARRA funds expired and state and local funds were not available to support them.</p>     <p>The authors conclude that, despite the job savings from ARRA funds, public education is experiencing its biggest employment decline in years. Because younger, less experienced teachers are usually pink slipped first, this is likely to mean an aging workforce, a spike in average remaining teacher salaries, and gaps in pension funds as fewer younger, lower paid teachers enter the system.</p>     <p>ARRA funds are set to expire in 2011. <i>Ed Money Watch</i> will be watching closely to see whether struggling states will be able to maintain the current K-12 employment levels without federal stimulus funds. We are also curious to see what the declining education workforce will mean for students. Will hiring freezes keep new, talented teachers out of classrooms? Will an aging workforce be able to keep up with the demands of public education today?</p><!--break-->