Key Findings

• An important feature of the conflict in Libya post-2011 has been the rise of airstrikes by multiple domestic and international belligerents. At least four foreign countries and three domestic Libyan factions are reported to have conducted air and drone strikes in Libya since 2012.
• According to reports by some of the belligerents as well as news reporting and accounts in social media, the nations and local groups operating in Libya have conducted at least 2,158 airstrikes and drone strikes between September 2012 and June 10, 2018.
• According to news reports and accounts on social media, at least 242 civilians were killed in these strikes, taking the lowest estimate, and as many as 395 killed, by the highest estimate. No nation or local group has stated responsibility for any of these civilian deaths. This study is the first overall accounting of these civilian deaths.

• In addition to civilian fatalities, according to news reports and individual accounts on social media, at least 324 civilians were wounded in airstrikes, by the lowest estimate, and 524, taking the highest estimate.
• Less than 50 percent of all reported airstrikes are officially declared. A lack of international media reporting on the air war has helped to obscure the fact that a number of countries elect not to report their air strikes in Libya, including France, the United Arab Emirates and, at times, the United States and Egypt.
• Reported civilian deaths from airstrikes in Libya are relatively low when compared to higher-intensity conflicts in, for example, Iraq, Syria, or Yemen. Casualty estimates more closely match at present those from lower-intensity counterterrorism campaigns, such as the U.S. drone program in Pakistan and Somalia, albeit over a shorter time period. (This may reflect the fact that reporting mechanisms for civilian deaths in Libya are slight compared to countries such as Syria.)
• Libya’s civil war began in earnest in May 2014, and almost 250 strikes reportedly occurred that year, which were conducted mostly by the Libyan National Army. This was followed by a slowing of strikes in 2015, as Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s ground campaign targeting Islamist militias spread across the country. In contrast, 2016 and 2017 were high-volume years for airstrikes, with 1,015 and 574 reported strikes, respectively. This jump in numbers was in part due to a 2016 U.S. military operation targeting ISIS that involved 495 air and drone strikes on the city of Sirte.
• Most strikes between September 2012 and June 10, 2018, have reportedly occurred in Benghazi, Sirte and Derna, cities that were high-conflict zones during the Libyan rebellion and the 2011 NATO intervention. ISIS controlled territory in both Derna and Sirte in 2015 and 2016, contributing to high volumes of strikes in those locations. However, heavy bombardments of these cities in recent years have not been accompanied, as might be expected, by significant local reports of civilian harm. This may indicate a local under-reporting of the issue, which could be explained by difficulties accessing these cities during the high-volume periods of airstrikes. Additionally, Libya lacks local monitors such as the Syrian Network for Human Rights, which assesses civilian harm in Syria.
• Gen. Haftar’s LNA has reportedly conducted 1,112 airstrikes in Libya since 2014—more than any other belligerent. These have reportedly resulted in 95 civilian deaths at minimum and potentially as many as 172 noncombatant deaths, based on the highest estimates. These fatalities account for almost 40 percent of the documented civilian deaths in our database—the highest reported number for any belligerent.
• Of the four foreign states conducting strikes in Libya, the United States is the most transparent about its operations. The United States conducted the campaign Operation Odyssey Lightning against ISIS forces in Libya from Aug. 1, 2016, to Dec. 19, 2016, which included 495¹ air and drone strikes, according to the U.S. Africa Command. (It reopened the operation for a single day on Jan. 19, 2017.) The U.S. military self-reported these strikes.² However, the United States may be inconsistent with its strike reporting. Our database includes 15 strikes attributed in local reports to the United States that have not been confirmed by American officials.

• According to our data, the United States has conducted 524 strikes on militant targets in Libya since the NATO intervention, primarily at Sirte during 2016, which according to Libyan reports resulted in 10 to 20 civilian fatalities, based on the minimum and maximum estimates in our database.
• Some strike allegations report different parties as responsible for the same strike (e.g., a local report might claim the LNA conducted a strike, while an international outlet reported that Egypt was responsible for the same action). Based on contested cases like these that implicate both the United States and another party, the United States could be responsible for up to 54 additional civilian deaths in Libya, primarily as a result of its strikes in support of Libya’s internationally recognized Government of National Accord, known as the GNA.
• Like the United States, the LNA faction has also declared many of its airstrikes. Between them, the two belligerents account for more than 75 percent of reported strikes. However, neither party has publicly accepted responsibility for any reported civilian casualties.
• The GNA has reportedly conducted 54 strikes, which have resulted in at least seven and at most nine civilian fatalities, according to local reports. However, the GNA could be responsible for as many as 54 additional civilian deaths, based on strike allegations that name more than one country or local group as responsible for certain strikes.
• The United Arab Emirates, which conducts actions in support of the LNA, has reportedly conducted at least 35 strikes in Libya, which are said to have resulted in at least 11 and potentially as many as 18 civilian deaths.
• Egypt also conducts strikes alongside the LNA, as well as unilateral actions against suspected militants on its borders. At least 41 strikes have been declared or reported, which have resulted in at least 13 and at most 14 civilian deaths, according to local and international sources.
• France has reportedly conducted at least five strikes in Libya, which have resulted in a minimum of four and potentially as many as eight civilian deaths. France might also be responsible for a single strike on Aug. 12, 2016, that hit an urban area in Benghazi, killing more than two dozen civilians by some estimates. Sources blamed both the LNA and France for this strike.³

• 132 airstrikes in our database have been attributed to more than one party in reports of the incident. For example, one source might say France conducted a strike in a specific location, while a separate source blames the LNA for a strike in an identical location on the same day. Theoretically, the strike may have been conducted by both parties jointly, or perhaps was misattributed to one of the parties. Since we can’t be sure, these 182 strikes, and the 83 resulting civilian deaths are considered “contested” in our database and aren’t included in the total strike and casualty estimates of each individual belligerent, underscoring the need for belligerents to report airstrikes and investigate allegations of civilian casualties.
• Based on news reports and social media accounts, the number of militants that have been killed in airstrikes in Libya range from a minimum of 778 to 966, taking the highest estimates. However, it is unclear how local belligerents and foreign militaries distinguish ‘enemy fighters’ from noncombatants and whether these distinctions are the same across aerial conflict participants.

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