Early Warning Tools
Short-term forecasting or near real-time updates on situations that could escalate
A type of risk assessment, these tools tend to be updated daily or monthly, and the data are accompanied by analysis. Their purpose is spurring immediate response or other action. For example, iSciences’ Water Anomalies forecast is designed to trigger further research into at-risk geographic areas, and the Council on Foreign Relations’ Global Conflict Tracker organizes its conflicts based on the level of relevance to U.S. interests. The near-real-time nature of these tools often requires that they harvest their data from the regions they are reporting on, either through local media or boots on the ground. For example, the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS NET) has 22 field offices.
| Tool Name | Climate Change | Conflict and State Instability | Natural Resource Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crisis Watch | ✔ | ||
| Water Anomalies Forecast | ✔ | ||
| Famine Early Warning System Network | ✔ | ||
| Global Conflict Tracker | ✔ |
Crisis Watch
International Crisis Group 1
A monthly early warning bulletin designed to provide regular updates on the state of the most significant situations of conflict around the world.
Visit the tool here: www.crisisgroup.org
Water Anomalies Forecast
iSciences 2
A monthly PDF report of current water anomalies and future forecasts (up to 9 months).
The underlying water security indicator model identifies regions with significant water anomalies — either deficits or surpluses relative to historically expected quantities using a 1950-2009 baseline period.
Visit the tool here: www.isciences.com
Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)
USAID, USGS, NOAA, NASA, USDA 3
A near- and medium-term early warning tool with analysis on food insecurity in more than 36 of the world’s most food-insecure countries.
The data are gathered from 22 field offices in collaboration with scientists and NGOs. The goal is to help government decision-makers and relief agencies plan for and respond to humanitarian crises.
Visit the tool here: fews.net
Global Conflict Tracker
Center for Preventative Action at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) 4
CFR’s Preventive Priorities Survey identifies ongoing conflicts around the world and provides monthly updates with background information and available resources. As of May 2018, there are nearly thirty conflicts on the map.
The visualization denotes both the degree of impact on US interests as well as whether the conflict is worsening or improving.
Visit the tool here: www.cfr.org/interactives/global-conflict-tracker
Citations
- An independent peace-building research and advocacy group, funded by foundations, corporations, governments, NGOs, and individuals.
- A Michigan-based consulting firm.
- A USAID-managed, U.S. intergovernmental investment.
- An independent U.S.-based research organization funded by governments, corporations, NGOs, and individuals.