Introduction

In its 2018 National Defense Strategy, the U.S. government identified global competition between “great powers” as a trend that will shape the twenty-first century.¹ This factsheet looks at a specific aspect of that competition: China’s natural security. The Phase Zero project at New America defines natural security as the intersection of prosperity, security, and natural resources, a condition of reliable, affordable, and sustainable access to sufficient natural resources for short and long-term stability and prosperity. “Phase Zero,” the focus of the project, is a U.S. defense planning concept referring to a time before there’s armed conflict, when it’s still possible to shape the strategic landscape.

This report is drawn from an ongoing Phase Zero research initiative, in partnership with the Joint Global Change Research Institute, which looks at how climate change may affect China’s natural security and shape the country’s strategic choices in the coming decades. The methodology for the natural security rankings map, as well as complementary military and soft power rankings, can be downloaded here. Altogether, these composite rankings include more than 40 indicators, ranging from arms imports to bilateral trade to cultural investments, such as “Confucius Institutes.”