Iran: What Matters Now?

On June 26, Sir Richard Dalton, the former UK ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Iran
and an associate fellow with the Middle East & North Africa Program at the Chatham
House, joined Steve Clemons at the
New America Foundation to shed light on current events in Iran and what
the long term effects of the Iranian election will be.

Before beginning the discussion, Dalton
emphasized that he would rank scenarios by likelihood but would not be
predicting outcomes in Iran.  He explained that while the recent protests
in Iran have been significant, the coalition necessary for sustained change has
not been formed and, consequently, the “people who want change are not going to
have the stomach for continuing the fight for very long.”  In Sir Richard Dalton’s opinion the Islamic
Republic is not unraveling, the Supreme Leader’s power has not been diminished,
and the government will not hesitate to suppress the street protestors.

Dalton
went on to lay out three main scenarios that could occur.  The first, and the one that Dalton considers the least likely, is that
fundamental reform to the system will occur under President Ahmadinejad’s
rule.  The second scenario, which Dalton believes is
distinctly possible, is that things will simply continue as they were
before.  President Ahmadinejad will not
admit that any mistakes were made and will continue to claim that the elections
were fair and foreigners are bad. The third scenario is one of slight
adjustment, a middle ground between the first two scenarios.  In this case, the majority of President
Ahmadinejad’s policy will remain the same but there will be recognition of his
diminished power and a slight move towards more moderate economic policy.

As for U.S.-Iran relations, Dalton suggested that there is a considerable
wall of distrust that the two countries must overcome.  Keeping Russia
and China on board and
avoiding any concrete deadlines are essential for improved engagement with Iran.  Dalton
warns against delaying engagement, considering a non-proliferation treaty of
utmost importance for long-term security.   

–Event summary written by Caroline Esser, Intern, American Strategy Program, New America Foundation

Participants
featured
speaker
Sir
Richard Dalton
Former UK Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Iran
(2002-2006)
Associate Fellow, Middle East & North Africa Program, Chatham
House

moderator
Steve
Clemons
Director, American Strategy Program
Publisher,
The Washington Note