A New Take on the Cost of NCLB

For most of the law’s existence, politicians have been debating whether No Child Left Behind (NCLB) is underfunded. School districts, states, and stakeholders have sued the federal government for enforcing an “underfunded mandate” that requires them to meet proficiency and attendance levels without providing what they believe are necessary funds to do so. For several years the fight has gone on with seemingly no hope for conclusion. But three researchers have finally shed some light on the cost of NCLB goals.

Duncombe, Lukemeyer, and Yinger recently published a study in a book titled Improving on No Child Left Behind: Getting Education Reform Back on Track, that estimates the cost of bringing students in four states to various levels of proficiency. To say that the results invoke sticker shock is an understatement.

The states in question are California, New York, Missouri and Kansas. While California and New York are highly urbanized, Missouri and Kansas are primarily rural. New York and Kansas have demonstrated relatively high student achievement while California and Missouri have demonstrated relatively low achievement.

The researchers used regression analysis to estimate the relationship between spending and student achievement at current levels. From the analysis, they created a cost function to determine how much money would be required to bring students in each state to 70 percent, 80 percent and 90 percent NCLB proficiency. The district level data used in the study included per pupil spending, student performance, poverty, special education enrollment, English language learner population, and total enrollment from 2006.

The analysis concluded that among the four states, per pupil spending would have to increase between .4 percent and 38 percent ($12,797 and $8,635, respectively) to reach 70 percent proficiency and 16 percent and 58 percent ($7,078 and $10,283, respectively) to reach 90 percent proficiency. States with relatively high achievement required the smallest spending increases, while those with low achievement required larger increases. This analysis suggests states are not spending nearly enough to bring 100 percent of students to proficiency.

The researchers also isolated three sources of financial inputs and determined how much each would need to be increased to reach each of the three proficiency levels while holding the others steady. These three financial inputs are federal Title I funding, state funding, and school district efficiency.

If state funding and school district efficiency were held steady, federal Title I spending would have to increase by 10 percent in New York and 1,820 percent in Missouri to reach 70 percent proficiency. To reach 90 percent proficiency, spending would have to increase 587 percent in New York and 2,522 percent in Missouri.

These are enormous and likely unattainable numbers. Given current spending levels and a goal of 90 percent proficiency, Title I spending would have to reach over $29.4 billion in California, $7 billion in New York, $4.7 billion in Missouri and $521 million in Kansas. Keep in mind, current Title I funding for all 50 states is $14 billion. Through the lens of the given calculations, 100 percent proficiency seems like pie in the sky.

Granted, it is ridiculous to expect federal funds to take on the full financial weight of meeting NCLB goals. But, according to the authors, if state funding and school district efficiency increased 25 percent, Title I spending would still have to increase 300 to 500 percent in low proficiency states to reach 90 percent proficiency. And in states with relatively high proficiency, a 5 percent increase in state funding and school district efficiency would require a 200 to 300 percent increase in Title I funding to reach 90 percent proficiency.

School district efficiency refers to how effectively a school district turns inputs into outputs or achievement. A school with excellent teachers and good technology is likely to be more efficient than a school with mediocre teachers and outdated technology. Research shows that efficiency is both hard to measure and difficult to increase.

When taken at face value, this study reveals some scary truths about current spending levels as the 2014 requirement for 100 percent proficiency draws near. Unless federal spending drastically increases, actions must be taken to dramatically increase state spending and school efficiency. And while we don’t expect federal spending to increase by thousands of percentage points any time soon, we do hope that these findings have an impact on NCLB reauthorization and reconsideration of the 100 percent proficiency requirement.