How Much Protection Does a College Degree Afford?

Although prior research has shown the significant benefits of a college degree for upward economic mobility, some members of the media have questioned the persistence of these benefits for recent college graduates during the recession. Using data from the Current Population Survey for years 2003-2011, a new report from Pew’s Economic Mobility Project examines the job prospects for 21-24 year olds before (July 2005 – November 2007), during (December 2007 – June 2009), and after the recession (July 2009 – December 2011). The report concludes that while bachelor’s degree holders, associate’s degree holders and high school graduates ages 21-24 experienced higher unemployment during the recession, a college education continues to shield individuals from serious unemployment, low-skill jobs, and lower wages.

 Among the report’s findings:

• During the recession, drops in the employment rate were less severe for those with a bachelor’s degree. During the recession, the employment rate for those with a bachelor’s fell 7%, compared to an 11% decline in employment for those with an associate’s degree, and a 16% decline for those with only a high school diploma.


• The greater employment rate for individuals with a bachelor’s degree was not the result of college graduates working in lower-skill jobs. By and large, both before and after the recession, four-year college graduates had more than two times the number of college-level jobs than those with an associate’s degree and more than four times the number of college-level jobs than those with only a high school diploma.


• Additionally, those with a bachelor’s degree experienced a smaller decline in weekly wages during the recession. While those with a bachelor’s experienced a 5% cut in wages, associate’s degree holders experienced a 12% decline and high school graduates experienced a 10% decline.


• Four-year college graduates who started the recession out of work were more likely to find jobs during the recession than those with an associate’s degree or only a high school diploma.


• The proportion of bachelor’s degree recipients who made the transition from school to work remained the same during the recession (though not as reliably into college-level jobs as before the recession), but the proportion of associate’s degree recipients and high school graduates who made the transition from school to work declined by 10%.