The Iran Deal Will Pass—Now What?
Weekly Article
Sept. 10, 2015
After a long summer of negotiations in both Vienna and in Congress, supporters of the nuclear deal with Iran finally won. President Obama was able to secure enough votes in the Senate to protect his historic achievement. This agreement is a significant foreign policy gain for the United States, and many feel that using strong diplomacy over force will bring the United States greater respect and influence abroad. With this deal, President Obama may have successfully rebranded America's image in the Middle East, from that of an invader to that of a problem-solver.
Iran has also gained a lot of respect in the region for using diplomacy with an enemy, and for preventing what many thought was an imminent military attack by the United States. Iran's foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has gained much admiration in Iran and across the region. People now see him as the embodiment of the new generation in the Middle East, one that admires the West and wants to be connected, but with independence and strength. Zarif is seen as having negotiated from a position of strength, and as having done so with dignity and respect.
The deal will survive Congress. But what questions can we expect to survive the deal?
1. Sanctions and the Economy: The Iranian people elected President Hassan Rouhani in 2013 on his promise to lift sanctions and improve the economy. The financial sanctions of the past few years have crippled the Iranian economy. Once those are lifted, people expect to see a boost in the economy and job market. Everyone is waiting to see the actual impact that they will have on life in Iran.
2. Domestic Reform: After resolving the nuclear issue and improving the economy, President Rouhani has a lot of domestic political issues to resolve, such as releasing political prisoners and leaders of the 2009 Green Movement and more opening of the political and social atmosphere. Iran's reengagement with the West will indeed lead to the internal reforms expected by Western and Iranian activists alike.
3. Syria: Violence in Syria began in March 2011, and evolved into a bloody civil war that has grown from a national to a regional and now a global crisis. As Assad's only ally in the region, Iran can play a major role in helping to end this crisis. The question now becomes when and how it will.
4. The United States: Neither Iran nor the U.S. has benefited from three decades of animosity. Both sides have missed numerous opportunities to reengage and reconnect. Now, with moderate presidents in office in both countries and a historic agreement in hand, there are high hopes that the two nations will take more steps towards each other. The deal is an opportunity for both countries to do so.