April 17, 2017
Mark Schmitt wrote for Vox's Polyarchy about whether anti-Trump backlash will edge politicians back towards standard political practices:
If Republicans continue to face defeats and worse-than-expected outcomes in special elections this spring, as they did in Kansas’s deep-red Fourth District, they have at least one big advantage: a very early warning of the electoral debacle facing them in 2018, if things remain on their current course.
Midterm elections have brought losses to the president’s party in 18 of the past 20 cycles, averaging more than 30 seats in the House, although with wide variations. While the biggest reversals seem inevitable in retrospect, in the moment they often came as a surprise, even with just a month or so to go.