The Munchkin Theory of Donald Trump

Mark Schmitt wrote for the New York Times about Donald Trump's impact on Kellyanne Conway's strategy for attracting married, female voters:

Long before she was Donald Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway was known in political circles for a catchphrase: “marriage, munchkins, mortgage and mutual funds.” It’s not as memorable as Trump’s “You’re fired,” but it represented a powerful argument: Women who were liberal when young would become more conservative — and become reliable Republican voters — as they formed families and became homeowners and investors. 

In recent elections, that theory has often been borne out. The Democratic advantage among unmarried women has widened with each presidential election, while Republican appeals about economic and personal security pulled older and married voters toward the G.O.P. The fearmongering about the Islamic State and the Ebola virus in the 2014 election, in which turnout was lower and older, married voters played a bigger role, revived the “security mom” archetype from the mid-2000s.