The looming legitimacy crisis of the 2018 midterms

Lee Drutman wrote for Vox about close midterm elections in a time of decreasing voter confidence, coupled with Russian hacking threats.

Between now and November 6, one question is sure to dominate American political life: Which party will win the 2018 midterm elections?

But there’s another, more difficult question we should also be asking about the midterms: Will we collectively accept the results as legitimate? And if not, what happens then?

There’s a non-zero chance we could have an electoral legitimacy crisis on our hands. And we should start preparing for it now. It’s getting late for a cybersecurity solution, and even that may not be enough. We’re going to need a political solution.

How worried should we be?

Consider the following three propositions:

1. There’s a decent chance that either or both chambers of Congress could come down to a few close elections.
   
2. Electoral confidence in the United States has been declining since 2000, in large part because politicians, especially Republicans, have been undermining it. Electoral confidence is particularly low in closely contested states.
   
3. We know the Russians are planning to sow chaos in the 2018 elections, and they’ve already infiltrated the crazy patchwork of election administration in America. In a close election, a few fishy developments could undermine the legitimacy of the results and set in place a potential crisis — especially if political leaders on the losing side of the election encourage it.