We didn’t see Donald Trump coming. But we could have.

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Media Outlet: the Washington Post

It's rare for an election to raise a metaphysical question — and even rarer for Donald Trump to do so. But that is exactly what he has done by repeatedly confounding expectations of his electoral demise: He has rattled our conception of how knowable the future is.

Pundit predictions are notoriously poor, but last fall, there was near-unanimity among political analysts that Trump would fail, and fast. Nate Silver, the statistical wunderkind who made his reputation by accurately calling elections using poll-driven models, said that Trump’s base of support was “about the same share of people who think the Apollo moon landings were faked.”

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J. Peter Scoblic is an International Security program fellow with New America, where he researches U.S. nuclear strategy and the power of prediction.