Seven unlikely events in the fight against Islamic State, and their likely outcomes

When assessing events on the ground — particularly in dynamic situations like Iraq and Syria — it is devilishly difficult to determine if and when a game-changing event will occur. “Unforeseeable” game-changers are, well, “unforeseeable.” Part of the intelligence challenge is trying to prepare for all possible scenarios and making assessments about what the future might hold. We’ve identified five black swans — high-impact but low-probability events that could alter the course of the conflict. Will any of them occur? Nobody knows. But if any does happen, all bets are off as to the next chapter in Iraq and Syria.