Retreating From the Coasts Makes Sense, But Our Current Approach Isn’t Working

FLH’s Yuliya Panfil and Tim Robustelli wrote an article in Shelterforce, laying out a three-part plan for relocating 20 million climate-vulnerable Americans by 2100. That includes stemming the flow of Americans moving into climate-vulnerable locations, incentivizing those already in at-risk areas to relocate on their own, and planning buy-outs at scale for the rest.

Scientists project that sea-level rise alone will force over 13 million Americans to leave their homes permanently by 2100. Add in wildfires, hurricanes, and extreme heat, and we estimate that 20 million people could need to relocate in the U.S. over the coming decades. At the current rate of buyouts—about 1,250 every year—we estimate that it would take 4,000 years to move all these Americans to safety.

Of course, we don’t have that luxury. Instead, there will come a time when the ocean begins swallowing up entire towns. (We can already see the start of this in North Carolina’s Outer Banks, where homes are falling into the Atlantic.)

Waiting till the 11th hour to respond would be tremendously expensive. Research from Industrial Economics and the University of Colorado suggests that without adequate government intervention, coastal property owners will incur about $350 billion in losses annually by 2070 and about $900 billion per year by 2090. Conversely, the study found that proactive adaptation to climate change would cost a fraction as much.

Read the full Shelterforce article here, and the FLH report on managed retreat, “Beyond Rebuilding,” here.